Real briefings.
Real markets.

1 US equities closed fractionally lower with the S&P at 6556 and Nasdaq at 21762, both barely changed from last close as markets paused after consecutive sharp selloffs. The dollar index eased to 99.18 from 98.95 while unit labor costs for Q4 were revised sharply higher to 4.4% versus 3.5% expected, keeping wage inflation fears alive heading into year-end. Treasury sold $69B in 2-year notes at 3.936% yield. Brent crude held just above $100 after plunging from $112 last close, down nearly 11% as Iran peace talks continue with the US-led group awaiting Tehran's response for negotiations scheduled for later this week.

2 Asia opens to geopolitical flux with reports the US could be eyeing ground operations near Iran's eastern flank close to Pakistan even as diplomatic channels remain active. Nikkei last printed 52252, steady from 51515 last close. Dollar-yen is trading 158.69, slightly firmer from 158.43 last close but well within recent ranges. Australian inflation data and Bank of Japan policy decisions are due later in the session, giving markets twin macro catalysts to digest alongside Middle East headline risk.

Watch Brent's grip on the $100 handle as any concrete Iran deal signal could trigger further unwinding of the war premium. Also monitor Nikkei reaction to BOJ policy given yen stability near recent levels and whether Australian CPI prints hot enough to shift RBA expectations.

1 Asia closed with sharp gains after Iran signaled non-hostile ships can pass through Hormuz. Nikkei rallied 4.3% to 53,750, recovering from prior-session losses driven by oil shock concerns. USD/JPY climbed to 159.00, up 0.4% from the previous close at 158.43, as yen weakened on risk-on flows. Australian core CPI printed 3.3% year-on-year in February, below the 3.4% forecast, easing RBA tightening expectations. BTC held near 70,919, flat from yesterday's close at 69,297.

2 EUR/USD holds flat at 1.1604, virtually unchanged from the previous close at 1.1607. Sterling sits at 1.3406, dipping 0.2% from yesterday's 1.3428 close. UK February CPI confirmed at 3.0% year-on-year, matching expectations and offering no new signal for the BOE. Oil remains the pivot for European rates — Brent at 95.75 has collapsed 4.2% from the last close at 99.94 as Hormuz reopening hopes ease supply fears. BlackRock CEO warned that oil at $150 could trigger a global recession, but the immediate risk premium is unwinding.

Watch DAX opening level after yesterday's 1.2% rally to 22,654 — further gains depend on Middle East cease-fire momentum holding. Brent stability below $96 is critical for European equity sentiment; a reversal toward $100 would reignite stagflation fears. Macron spoke with Iranian President Pezeshkian demanding cessation of regional attacks — any fresh escalation headline will reverse this morning's risk-on tone.

1 European equities rallied mid-session as oil fell and Iran cease-fire optimism gained traction despite conflicting signals. CAC40 climbed 1.7% to 7,858, DAX advanced 1.5% to 23,002, and FTSE100 rose 2.0% to 10,095, reversing prior-session losses as Brent dropped 4.4% to 95.58. Germany's March Ifo business climate index beat at 86.4 versus 86.1 expected, offering modest relief for European sentiment. EUR/USD traded flat at 1.1598 while GBP/USD eased to 1.3395. Asia closed mixed after Nikkei's 4.3% rebound faded on renewed geopolitical uncertainty.

2 US equities open flat with S&P500 at 6,556 after Iran's ambassador to Pakistan stated no talks occurred between the US and Iran, contradicting earlier cease-fire hopes. US February import prices surged 1.3% versus 0.5% expected, stoking inflation concerns and reducing Fed cut expectations. DXY sits at 99.33 as the dollar holds near two-day lows. BTC traded little changed at 71,698. No major US macro releases due today, leaving oil volatility and geopolitical headlines as the primary drivers for the session.

Watch Brent stability below $96 is critical — any spike back toward $100 will pressure equities and revive stagflation fears, especially after BlackRock CEO warned oil at $150 could spark a global recession. Iran narrative clarity matters for direction — conflicting statements from Pakistan and earlier cease-fire optimism create whipsaw risk. S&P500 6,581 prior close remains the near-term pivot for US market sentiment.